According to estimates from well-known public analysts such as Chainalysis, Ledger, and Coindesk, between 1.5 million and 5.3 million Bitcoins are presumed to be permanently lost.
The lost Bitcoins are those that are lost due to reasons such as lost passwords or hardware loss, as well as inactive wallets, including around 1 million BTC of Satoshi Nakamoto.
Estimates on Lost Bitcoins
1. Chainanalysis
Chainalysis estimates 2.8 million to 3.8 million lost Bitcoins as per its report released in November 2017.
2. Ledger
Ledger estimates around 2.3 million to 3.7 million lost Bitcoins as per its report released in November 2025.
3. River Financial
River Financial puts the estimate on lost Bitcoins around 3 to 4 million BTC.
4. Coindesk
Coindesk’s estimates are around 5.6 million lost Bitcoins, as per its report in April 2026.
5. Unchained Capital
Unchained Capita’s estimates on lost Bitcoin are around 3 to 3.8 million BTC as per data released in April 2026.
6. Dhirendra Das
My own estimates of lost Bitcoins range from 3.9 to 5.3 million BTC.
I consider the first set of lost Bitcoins to be those belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto, which as per my estimates should be around 1.1 million BTC. My own investigations presume Satoshi to be dead.
The second set of lost Bitcoins come around 2.9 to 4.2 million from initial holders who either have lost their passwords or their devices. These figures contain inactive ancient Bitcoin whales who have never been active. A famous case is James Howells who lost 8000 BTC after throwing a hard drive in a garbage which then ended up in a landfill.
What does a Lost Bitcoin really mean?
A lost Bitcoin means a cryptocurrency which cannot be recovered. Either the password, or the secret key, or the hardware, is lost forever; or the BTC has been sent to any lost address.
In simpler words, it is a Bitcoin which will never make it back into circulation.
Why does Lost Bitcoins Matter?
Bitcoin relies on its scarcity for value, similar to Gold. Meaning, the greater the scarcity, the higher will be its value. For greater scarcity, either the demand has to rise or the supply has to fall.
Lost Bitcoins contribute the fall of Bitcoin’s circulating supply. As a result, the greater the amount of lost Bitcoins, the lesser will be its circulating supply, and therefore, the higher will be Bitcoin’s demand.
Below is an infographic that explains this section.
Frequently Asked Questions
1. Are Satoshi’s Bitcoins lost forever?
Yes, as Satoshi is presumed dead, his personal Bitcoin holdings are presumed to be lost forever.
2. How much Bitcoins are in circulation?
There are 20 million BTC currently in circulation out of a total of 21 million.
3. Can I recover lost Bitcoins?
Yes, if you can obtain the lost password through any recovery tool or get the seed phrases in any way.
4. What are some Softwares to recover lost Bitcoin wallet passwords?
Some password recovery tools used to retrieve Bitcoin wallet passwords are BTC Recover and Passware. However, these tools are not personally tested by me or our team.
Disclaimer: Bitcoin News aims to provide information only, and our information does not constitute trade or investment advice. Kindly consult a financial advisor before trading or investing.
